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Ben's About-to-Sleep-Analysis
I just heard John Edwards say that they aren't going to concede tonight and that they want every vote to count. That's good rhetoric, but I feel really uncomfortable about it. My big issue is the popular vote; Bush leads by about 3 million, and even if Kerry's team is able to contest things in Ohio enough to get their electoral votes and win the presidency, you'll be left with a country that's going to be even more divided than in 2000, where most people will have the impression that popular incumbent was removed through legal maneuvering, and where a Democratic president will be facing a very hostile House and Senate. I loved a lot of their campaign's rhetoric, but even if they make it, Kerry/Edwards would face huge obstacles in turning their plans into actions.

However, I don't think a Kerry win is likely now. They need to take an inventory of Ohio, but I expect a concession later this week. However, the sky isn't completely dark. Bush now has no choice but to confront the mess he made in Iraq, and I think things will continue to get worse there and reflect poorly on Bush and his cohorts. I think there's a major rift in the Republican party that's going to open up now between the social conservatives and the fiscal conservatives; without a presidential election to unite them, there will be civil war within their ranks. This could lead to credible alternative candidates that will siphon off Republican blocks on a national level; I don't think we would have won in '92 without Perot to sap the strength of Bush, and we could have really used someone like him to pull away Republicans from GW in 2000.

There was one highlight for me tonight: Mark Strama won the state representative race against Jack Stick. My friend tesseract26 was a key player in Strama's campaign, and I send her and her fellow campaign workers my congratulations.

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Thank you! It feels really good to win. Takes some of the sting out of all the other shit.

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